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Xbox One and PS4 sales numbers don't matter right now (but you don't care)

Editorial: Microsoft and Sony are going to toss out a lot of numbers over the next couple months. They're fun to follow, but they don't mean much (yet).

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We’re in a war of numbers.

But sifting through all the noise, these numbers don’t really mean anything. Not yet anyway.

Don’t get me wrong, they’re big, impressive numbers for consoles that aren’t even a month old. After all, Nintendo’s Wii only sold 600,000 in its first week, and the PlayStation 2 only sold 500,000. But nobody is arguing that those consoles weren’t incredibly successful.

All those numbers really mean is that Sony and Microsoft have been more prepared for consumer demand than at any previous console launch. If more consoles were currently available for either system, they’d sell even more.

Sales numbers are meaningless for determining how “successful” either console is until after supply starts to surpass demand. Until you can walk into a store and pick one up. At that point, you’ll get objective numbers, minus the spin, and the popularity contest winner will be revealed.

But you probably already know that it’s going to be the PS4.

Going over the results from data provided by the market research portal GameSpot Trax, you can see a clear preference for Sony’s console among general gamers. In a series of surveys over the last year where respondents were asked to rate their likelihood to purchase either an XB1 or a PS4, here were the results. Although both consoles were relatively close around this time last year, the gulf widened considerably as we approached launch.

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And while respondents who definitely will not purchase a PS4 have declined slightly, the number who do not want to purchase an XB1 rose constantly until August.

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In a separate, completely unscientific survey of retailers I’ve talked with over the past couple weeks, they all told me the same story. XB1 and PS4 are both sold out, but the PS4 sells out immediately, while the Xbox stock tends to hang out for at least a few hours.

None of that means Microsoft isn’t going to be successful or even that the sales between both consoles won’t be relatively close. But just like the Xbox 360 lead sales for years in the US, the PS4 is probably going to stay just ahead of the XB1.

Does that really make a difference, outside of message boards and comments in stories like this one? As long as both consoles are selling at least decently, the actual number shouldn’t matter, should it?

Both the PS4 and XB1 have a similar lineup of games, and they’re both going to get the same wide-range of third-party support. They both have their own specific launch hardware problems. The real difference comes down to personal preference.

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If you prefer Microsoft-published exclusives (e.g. Halo, Fable, Forza) and want a Kinect, XB1 will make you happy. If you prefer Sony’s games (e.g. Uncharted, Killzone, Gran Turismo) and the PlayStation Plus subscription benefits, PS4 is the way to go. That choice isn’t going to become moot just because one console sells more than the other.

And even a successful launch isn’t a strong indicator of future success. The Wii U sold over 3 million in its first month, but the console has underperformed in sales. I don’t regret buying a Wii U at launch, but I also know that there are a lot of games that will never make it to Nintendo’s system.

So why do we care about these numbers, even if they don’t mean anything? Like film box office numbers, it’s just fun to see how sales numbers play out and how our own preferences compare to everyone else. When our biases match up, we get to feel validated. And when we’re in the minority, everyone else sounds like an idiot.

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IanNottinghamX

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Edited By IanNottinghamX

The console industry is dying.....hate to point that out...but theres less compelling reason to buy one with every new Technology that gets released

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djdan200

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@IanNottinghamX Not really

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Tech-head

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If it's dying, why are there record numbers of sales?

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kgallis21

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Yeah we really won't know how good each system is selling until sales past demand

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Lillemanden

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@OOLuigiOo @Lillemanden None yet, possible it'll be both.

I shall assume you're a fanboy then, such shallow reply. Or do you really think it's good journalism?

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Lillemanden

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@OOLuigiOo Yes, cause you veiled your accusation so well. I bow down to your wit, clearly you have me at an disadvantadge...

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blackjackcz

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Who cares. Both consoles are sold out everywhere. The numbers will only be as good as the number of systems being manufactured and placed on stores shelves right now. This XMAS is a major opportunity for Sony and Microsoft. IMO until better 1st party titles come out, I would wait.on both systems.

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Lillemanden

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But you probably already know that it’s going to be the PS4.

Is that a joke or really bad journalism?

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Skrilla_XS

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@Lillemanden This article is bad journalism. "(but you don’t care)"

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Tech-head

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Maybe a little of both, but that doesn't mean it isn't correct. There are many indicators that point to PS4 being the better seller this gen. This isn't some crazy prognostication on his part.

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Lillemanden

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@Tech-head That's is exactly what it is though.

In the paragraf just above he writes:

"Sales numbers are meaningless for determining how “successful” either console is until after supply starts to surpass demand. Until you can walk into a store and pick one up. At that point, you’ll get objective numbers, minus the spin, and the popularity contest winner will be revealed."

He is making the argument against making any predictions, and then he makes one.

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alaskancrab

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@Lillemanden the article is about not making too much out of early numbers. Everyone surely by now knows the PS4 is the big winner, even Xbox fans accept this.

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naomeh

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I can't find either at any of the marts in Kanto!

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Rob9999991

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South Park said Xbox ONE, won.... Good enough for me.

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advanracer

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The Real Question here is, how deep can your pockets go "just to play video games?"

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Vylsith

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Zero is the absence of number.

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JW2252

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I don't think numbers will matter at all this generation. Both consoles will sell enough to keep their third party support, so whichever console you choose you're going to get the games you want. The only thing that should sway you're mind are the handful of exclusives, but regardless how good those are, it's not going to cause one side to dominate the other. I'm calling it now that this generation is pretty much going to be a stalemate. I'm sure one will sell a couple million more than the other, but in the grand scheme of things, that's not really all that many.

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AdjacentLives

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Good article.

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tightwad34

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Edited By tightwad34

I understand putting the numbers out for the investors. It would be nice if you could do it in a way without fueling the fanboy fires. Don't know how, but I guess my point is these wars are getting out of hand and making those involved much less intelligent, if that's possible.

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batmunk2000

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@tightwad34 Investors see the console numbers and they get headaches because most investors want neither company to urinate money away in this space. As a gamer I love them both, as an investor, go back to TVs and Software please.

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Croxus

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Edited By Croxus

I made my irreversable choice to go from a 360 to PS4, for the benefits of PSN+ and because i am certain that the restrictions that M$ announced early will return once they acquire a decent player base.

Another important reason is that the majority of non gaming services M$ offers are unvalid in Europe...

BUT the thing is that the industry do NEED competition, its for the shake of us, the gamers, that both sides sell well!

Survive, compete and keep improving as they try to surpass each oher!


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Lillemanden

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@croxus Restrictions? Like being able to play games without putting the disc in?

Not sure what all the fuzz is about, the system would work like Steam does, not like people are whining about that.

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FadeToBlack90

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@Lillemanden @croxus Exactly. I have been saying that since the machine was announced. MS just did an absolutely horrible job of marketing all of the benefits of the original design.

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Rob9999991

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@croxus Got news for you...Those restrictions you were talking about will never see the light of day. If that's the reason you for your choice you certainly made the wrong one.

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monkeypukefight

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@rob9999991 @croxus learn to read, he said most of the services ms offers arent available in his country...

and since when did you become the boss of MS?? if they want to put those restrictions back in, they will... you have NO guarantee that they won't... if a company thinks it can get more money out of you, the will... just look at sony and their linux support... people were mad, but they did it anyway...

just saying.

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eelektrik

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@rob9999991 @croxus Even if they don't implement their DRM, that doesn't make his choice wrong because there is always the possibility that they will. Because they can. Whether they will or not remains to be seen and no one knows currently, but they certainly can if they want to. Supporting a company that was willing to do it in the first place only makes it more likely to happen, if not with the Xbox One then with their next console they will try it again.


Right now neither the PS4 nor Xbox One interests me. Any announced games for them that I care about are coming to PC anyway.

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cws3e

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@eelektrik @rob9999991 @croxus


So can sony, if we are going to play the paranoia game.

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JPL1982

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Yes, I don't care about it...lol

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cornbredx

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They do matter in so much as to show that the consoles made good enough sales to justify the new generation of consoles. Unlike the WiiU so far, I suspect the XBone and the PS4 are well on their way to being profitable already.


Just an uneducated guess, though. I'm no expert in economics.

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eelektrik

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@cornbredx Nintendo tends to design and price their hardware such that they make a profit on each one sold, or at least are pretty even with actual cost. Unlike Sony and Microsoft who are more willing to take a larger hit on hardware sales to try and make it up in software sales.


I don't know about Sony, but this was from earlier this year looking at the last 10 years of Microsoft's Xbox division. It isn't pretty, and launching consoles isn't cheap so it will be interesting to see if they make a profit this year or go back to losing money again. Because so far, Microsoft has yet to make an overall profit in the past two generations of consoles, the Xbox One would have to somehow be extremely profitable to turn that around, which I doubt will happen any time soon, if ever.


http://www.neowin.net/news/report-microsofts-xbox-division-has-lost-nearly-3-billion-in-10-years

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batmunk2000

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@eelektrik @cornbredx The money in this industry is eventually going to be in delivering content to the living room. This is the only reason these companies are playing in this space. (If you think these consoles are only about games, think again.) They are trying to stake a claim before Google & Apple come to play. Sony & Microsoft want to be seen as content providers else they simply will not be able to compete down the road.

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iempire68

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I think the numbers matter a lot. It shows demand for the leap to next gen is very strong, that nintendo better change it's game plan, and that game devs will be confident in making games for xb1 and ps4.

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Rafficus_III

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Edited By Rafficus_III

I really don't care which console wins this war. As long as the console I do invest in grants me access to the games I want to play, then I'm happy.

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joel_c17

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If they dont matter and we shouldnt care why do you make a point of updating us about them all the time?


is it because you love the hits?

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Dimebag_Darrell

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Edited By Dimebag_Darrell

I care. It's only been a month or so and I am already as sick of the "Has Xbone or PS4 won the next gen?" news and arguments as i am of the "Did Apple or [insert any non-apple company here] the tech war win this year" conversations. Who the F cares. Just buy the products you want and stop turning it all into a stupid non-existent 'war' already.

If you want to be in a war this badly, your friendly neighborhood recruiting officer will gladly sign you up for a four year stint in one of your nation's fine military branches.

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sdkingsht

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Edited By sdkingsht

Competition is good for the market. I picked up a PS4 because I love Naughty Dog's franchises and prefer the PS4 over an XBO & think it's a better system with more upside but I know that the fact that Microsoft is out there will make Sony continue to step their game up to try and stay ahead of the curve and visa versa. I also think PSPlus offers better benefit for the money. But having both competing is actually great for us as gamers.

The only truly lame thing about the gaming industry is fanboys. The thought that grown men could act like 5 year old little girls is just sad & embarrassing.

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batmunk2000

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Edited By batmunk2000

@sdkingsht You shouldn't insult 5 year old girls.

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barnold81

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Edited By barnold81

I don't think this console generation is going to be hard choice. I will just leave it at that. The statistics support that.

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cws3e

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@barnold81


There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics

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barnold81

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@cws3e @barnold81

My own and other consumers' past experience with Microsoft is not a statistic. I have had the RROD on a later model of Xbox 360 (I bought the Elite). Why would they keep putting defective products (and not fix it in later models) on the shelves when they know there is a problem? Laziness... or arrogance - one or the other. I also have had my account stolen on Xbox Live and Microsoft handled it very poorly. This was a few years ago, but I'm still furious about it. 720p at launch is not a statistic (and 720p for $100 more than its competitor that is already producing 1080p). Higher price also is not a statistic. The simple law of economics, higher price = lower demand. Neither the PS4 nor the Xbox One are backwards compatible, so I don't see that factoring into choice. I don't think the Xbox One will be unsuccessful, but I don't think it will be dominant this time.

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camballux

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Play the games not the brands.

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Slagar

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Edited By Slagar

Meh. Choose the one you like. Nobody's perfect, but if you constantly feel the need to convince others, work on your insecurities (meditation is the best way to do this IMO). Edit: Other than that, it's nice to see some sensible articles like this one. Cheers!

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Hermes33

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My question is simply this, what the hell has this got to do with an apparently American soldier firing an assault rifle? Why is that picture in the article? What has that got to do with anything?

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DWalker131

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Edited By DWalker131

@Hermes33 its the CONSOLE WAR !! lol

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SHusien

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@Hermes33 Also the tagline below says "we are in a war of numbers".

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Bobtsu50

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@Hermes33 Fanboys use numbers as ammunition in fanboy wars, I thought the imagery was quite obvious....

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Bobtsu50

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Edited By Bobtsu50

At the end of the day whoever sells the most consoles doesn't really tell the whole story. Because there is really no money to be made in the consoles themselves. Both companies are breaking even or making a slight profit on the console sales. The Games and the extra services are what makes money in the gaming industry. You could theoretically sale less consoles but more games and services.

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batmunk2000

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@bobtsu50 Wow... someone with a brain. You can barely find PS4 or 360/1 sales making a significant mark either way in either company's bottom line. Both are making these consoles to keep a finger into this entertainment space. If someone thinks making a console makes these companies a lot of money - they are dreaming. In the long run the profit is in being able to deliver digital entertainment to customers and make a killing on the content creators/providers.

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