After much mental debate, I've decided that Nintendo's fate next-gen boils down to two basic questions:

1. Will the controller become an innovation, or a gimmick? I think that this isn't as set in stone as Sony fanboys would have you believe.  I think it depends on the games themselves individually.  I absolutely guarantee that every first-party Nintendo title will use the controller in a new way.  Sixty percent of third-party titles will use the controller as a stupid gimmick.  Kind of like what happened with the DS.  Here's the cycle that will occur: the Wii will launch and a bunch of really good first-party stuff will come out and everyone will be excited.  Then the third-parties will get in there and pump out a bunch of absolute garbage with a few stand-outs.  Then more first-party stuff will come out, and this cycle will last the Wii's entire life span.  So, here's the verdict: 70% gimmick, 30% innovation.  Not a great out-look.

2. Will people get behind something so different? I think hard-cores like me will. I think casuals will look at it and scuff.  They will say either (A. "I don't want that kiddie garbage, get me Halo!" or (B. "I don't want none of thats mos-son technology! I playes my Madden with a con-twoller!"  Yeah, not a great out-look. 

I think Nintendo will be just as successful this gen with the Wii as they were last-gen with the GameCube.  Sure, that may sound bad, but they'll still fare better than Sony. 

6.7/10

Next up: Microsoft.

Note: I wrote this really late at night, so excuse any grammatical errors.