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We Finally Know WoW Subscription Numbers Thanks To A Blizzard GDC Talk

Blizzard said Shadowlands saw "historically high" numbers of players leaving the game, but subscriptions are now trending upwards.

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World of Warcraft subscription numbers have long been shrouded in mystery, but thanks to a recent Blizzard GDC talk and some clever number-crunching by a WoW content creator, fans of Blizzard's MMO now have some hard data on exactly how many players are paying a monthly subscription fee for the privilege of exploring Azeroth.

Blizzard stopped giving out exact subscription numbers prior to the release of the game's 2016 Legion expansion. Since then, fans have wondered how well (or how poorly) the game has been doing from a player-number perspective, especially following the release of 2020's Shadowlands, which is considered a low point in the game's long history.

The good news is there are now some actual numbers to mull over, even if they are rough estimates. According to an estimate by BellularGaming based on a chart shown by Warcraft general manager John Hight as part of his recent GDC talk, as well as previous Activision Blizzard earning statements, WoW currently has an estimated 7.25 million subscribers. That number is significantly up since the launch of 2022's Dragonflight, and is a major course correction following the game's polarizing Shadowlands expansion.

Hight, as part of his talk, discussed what went wrong with Shadowlands and how Blizzard worked to get players back. According to Hight, the Shadowlands setting, its treatment of fan-favorite characters, and its new villain all missed the mark. It also disappointed from a gameplay perspective, with too much focus on "borrowed power" systems and a lack of variety. The community additionally didn't feel heard during Shadowlands, and Blizzard of its own admission lacked transparency with the playerbase.

It's no surprise then that during Shadowlands Hight said the game experienced "historically high churn" when it came to players canceling their subscription. From the launch of Shadowlands to its lowest point ahead of the release of Dragonflight, it's estimated WoW lost over 3 million subscribers. Even the re-release of The Burning Crusade Classic and Wrath of the Lich King Classic, two popular old-school expansions that were both included as part of the base WoW subscription during this period, did nothing to bump up plummeting player numbers.

A comparison of Warcraft general manager John Hight's GDC presentation to BellularGaming's estimates, via Reddit user Kevombat.
A comparison of Warcraft general manager John Hight's GDC presentation to BellularGaming's estimates, via Reddit user Kevombat.

Dragonflight's launch saw a spike in subscription numbers, as is usual for any expansion launch. The numbers then began to dip once more before steadily rising over the course of the expansion: an upward trend unseen in recent WoW history. In earnings statements, Activision Blizzard stated that subscriber retention numbers for Dragonflight were stronger than other more recent expansions, and Blizzard continued to build on that momentum with frequent content updates and more communication from the development team via a year-long content roadmap. Late last year additionally saw the release of WoW Classic Season of Discovery, which looks like it provided another strong uptick in subscription numbers.

All of the numbers discussed above are estimates, but according to Windows Central, are fairly accurate according to its own sources. WoW subscription numbers are trending upwards ahead of the game's 2024 expansion, The War Within, and seems to indicate that Blizzard's course-correcting actions post-Shadowlands are working.

The War Within will kick-off a three-expansion storyline Blizzard is calling The Worldsoul Saga. As with any new expansion, The War Within will add new zones to explore and dungeons to complete. It will also introduce a new endgame activity that can be completed solo or with small groups, as well as a long-awaited account-wide progression system called Warbands. Blizzard recently unveiled a surprise, limited-time battle royale playable in WoW called Plunderstorm, one that can be played by anyone with a WoW subscription.

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Slannmage

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Blizzard isn't Blizzard anymore, all the original talent is gone, they're just a games factory now trying to make the best replica of Blizzard games.

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Wbrabbit

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Edited By Wbrabbit

So what they're saying is that Microsoft has taken its talent of lying to investors to a new company?

Bullshit. I'm as hardcore a WOW gamer as has ever lived, and I barfed at Dragonflight and quit playing a month in. Microsoft is one of the biggest liars on earth. They're lying about this. If WOW were this popular again, it'd be all over South Park, movies, tv, radio, and talked about like it used to be. I haven't heard anyone mention it in 5 years.

Only 935 people bothered to rate it on Metacritic, and it has an average rating of 3.4. While it's possible a few million people still play, there's no way that horrific expansion "trended upward." Just Microsoft sociopathy at it again. People play games they liked, and not very many people liked this expansion.

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Sound_Demon

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he says it in the beginning, assuming Y axis is 0. There's no guarantee apart from the value given

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faithxvoid

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Edited By faithxvoid

Suspicious...

When WoW was reported to have 'peaked' around 08 or so, it was SUPER popular in China at the time. China did not have subscriptions, but Blizzard counted all active players in its sub counts.

There's no more China. It didn't have 7 million subs in the west when it was a pop culture phenomenon. When's the last time a normie mentioned WoW?

I smell something very fishy...

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cameronk845

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cameronk845  Staff

@faithxvoid:

it's unclear if the chart shown includes any numbers from China. So that's a good question. WoW peaked at over 12 million subs around Wrath of the Lich King, so it's definitely less popular than before and has dipped down to around sub 4 million at times based on the data. But 7 million is nothing to sneeze at for sure. Also worth noting the game is fractured into Classic and retail at this point, so it might not feel like there's that many players because there are like 4 different versions of the game.

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Wbrabbit

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Edited By Wbrabbit

@cameronk845: Microsoft executives must laugh so hard at night when people believe their bullshit. Except for twitchers and YouTubers probably buying subscriptions to keep their businesses going, the place is a ghosttown. The last time I played Dragonflight there were massive areas early in the game where it felt more like Everquest. No one was there. Even in capital cities most of the week, no one was there. It's not hard to see when someone is playing a game like that. They're in the world. With Dragonflight, it's usually one day a week when there's anyone there, and other areas of the game are abandoned. It was the first expansion I've ever played where I had trouble getting into early raids/dungeons because no one was online to play.

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faithxvoid

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Edited By faithxvoid

@cameronk845: it's 100% clear. WoW is not online in China and hasn't been for years.

it did not have 12 million 'subs'. It's a well establish misnomer because China didn't have subs. I've seen estimates of 4 million Chinese players.

That puts us back at my 8 million subs at peak number. A peak that saw every celebrity doing commercials, Southpark episodes, and normie doing leeroy memes.

But it's only down 1 mil since that?

Gotta be crazy or the other one to believe 7 million paying subs today.

Even MMO sites don't cover wow much. Look at the page views for wow head. More players are playing but less are looking for strats?

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Wbrabbit

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Edited By Wbrabbit
@faithxvoid said:

@cameronk845: it's 100% clear. WoW is not online in China and hasn't been for years.

it did not have 12 million 'subs'. It's a well establish misnomer because China didn't have subs. I've seen estimates of 4 million Chinese players.

That puts us back at my 8 million subs at peak number. A peak that saw every celebrity doing commercials, Southpark episodes, and normie doing leeroy memes.

But it's only down 1 mil since that?

Gotta be crazy or the other one to believe 7 million paying subs today.

Even MMO sites don't cover wow much. Look at the page views for wow head. More players are playing but less are looking for strats?

Just more Microsoft lying because they can. The last time I played the expansion was only a couple months in, and most of the week it was a ghosttown. I was sometimes the only person playing in any given area. They're just lying. Right, and it has abysmal aggregate ratings. People don't pay for games they didn't like.

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ticktockman1979

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Edited By ticktockman1979

@faithxvoid: With Activision Blizzard being a publicly-traded company, putting out false subscription numbers would be an FCC violation and not one, I’m sure, Blizzard would risk over bragging rights. So it’s safe to assume the numbers are correct.

And you’d be surprised at how many people still play. I know longer do, but teach high school and was surprised to discover quite a few of my students play.

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Wbrabbit

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@ticktockman1979: You really think after all these years of Microsoft getting away with murder they're worried about a little FCC violation? lol Does the FCC even still function anymore?

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Edited By faithxvoid

@wbrabbit: It would be easy to disprove my argument if anyone could produce any metrics showing the growth of wow related fan sites or add on markets that should coincide with 7 million people actively playing.

These metrics don't exist.

The numbers don't add up. Mega publushers were crawling all over themselves to spam the world with hundred million dollar mmos when it was 8 million subs for wow. Nobody has touched the genre in the west, other than Amazon, in like over a decade.

Don't tell me it's because they don't sell, because publishers can't stop wasting time and money releasing battle royals and survival games.

LOL @ the dude who thinks the FCC governs what corporations say to their investors. You think the USDA will jump in and help too?

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Wbrabbit

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@faithxvoid: Right, there would be legions of content online, another South Park episode, and tons of merchandise would be rolling out for it again. I remember back when it was at its biggest. It wasn't just a headline on gaming sites, it was everywhere.

And even with BFA, I could find LFR and mythic+ dungeons at any hour of the day or night. By the second month of Dragonflight, it was a ghost town except at the top of the week. I haven't played it for over a year, though, so maybe numbers picked up some, but I would be surprised if it did.

The only thing I can think of is that with the recent onslaught of AI programs, maybe bots are inflating the count or Microsoft is flat out lying. The government should have reigned in Microsoft 20 years ago, but if it wasn't then, it's never. They all pretty much have free reign to strip personal data down for profit and do whatever they want now.

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Ichirei

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Over 7 million and growing?!?! Wtf I thought they were under a million by now, that's an insane number of subscribers, the game is 25 years old. That must make WoW by far the most popular MMO today still, right?

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off3nc3

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Edited By off3nc3
@ichirei said:

Over 7 million and growing?!?! Wtf I thought they were under a million by now, that's an insane number of subscribers, the game is 25 years old. That must make WoW by far the most popular MMO today still, right?

It turns 20 years old this year but yea it's by far the most popular MMORPG and probably still the best to be played compared to what's on this dying market.

Again i'm not a shill as I stopped playing this game after Legion but it seems WoW isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

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ticktockman1979

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@ichirei: Game came out in 2004, so it’s 20 years old.

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illegal_peanut

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That's a lot of dumbass with too much money.

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jenovaschilld

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When it comes to WoW competent content, I hope 'this is a trend that continues'.... sadly, an unrequited desire that never lasts long. Activision Blizzard only throws us good content, after a really bad or lack thereof content.

Legion was a great bounce back from WoD that was one of the longest and lethargic expansions in WoWs history. Not worth the cost of the subscription. We WoW gamers were promised, and really thought things started to turn around, and then you had BfA and Shadowlands which got worse and worse. (I stopped my sub .3 BfA and came back for Shadowlands and left, till .1 of DF) The classics were kinda of fun, for a romp down memory lane.

I expect things to go downhill post DF. Just going by history.

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Wbrabbit

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Edited By Wbrabbit

@jenovaschilld: I've loved WOW since it came out, but I stopped at Dragonflight. It was pathetic. And you could see posts in the forums go down, too. I'm sure a few million Twitchers and YouTubers get accounts and bots keep it going, but the last time I played, it was sad. Even with BFA I could get into a dungeon or raid at 4 AM. In Dragonflight, it was a ghosttown, there were literally times I couldn't get into a dungeon at noon. No one was even bothering.

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jenovaschilld

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Edited By jenovaschilld

@wbrabbit: I felt Dragonflight gave certain gamers what they wanted and yes... lacking in other offers.

I really enjoyed the exploration, quests, large playground and zones. With enough content to keep you busy.

I am part of a active raiding guild, so the raiding and mythic dungeons were enough. I rarely pug a group for anything save a zone quest. I did notice that LFG and LFR were pretty lacking unless it was the first days it came out. I am on a RPG server, one of the last busy ones out yet.

For me BFA stumble with the first raid, and never recovered. Then the overly long time before Shadow and lack of content between expansions was just not worth it, not enough entertainment for the money or time. Then I took a break with SLs first raid, content was poor.

I hope the next expansion has enough content and frequent content for everyone. Would also like a graphics overhaul.

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Wbrabbit

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@jenovaschilld: In my opinion, Dragonflight had great promise when it first came out. I loved the single player campaign and the flying mechanics. It's when I got into the Mythic+ that I really struggled. Some of that may be that I'm older/not as coordinated as I used to be, but I really struggled to play without mods (and that's how I play). They're probably ramping up difficulty thinking everyone uses mods, but man if you are not using mods, good luck. In BFA, I could be average with no mods, in Dragonflight, I quickly decided not to frustrate groups trying to learn things.

Where it really derailed was in the pacing of the campaigns. That was even worse in Shadowlands, not only were the single-player campaigns dumped all at once, but some of the areas were just painful to travel through (and so small compared to the glory days). I can't explain it, but in prime WOW, the campaigns were spaced apart really well. You knew exactly what you were supposed to be doing, and it felt like there was progression. With Shadowlands/Dragonflight campaigns, it felt like, "Do this! And now this! And this! Look over here at this, hey this now" with no natural progression.

I would love for them to be telling the truth about its current success. With the game being so old, coding probably being a nightmare, is it time to look ahead to a follow-up, even if it's just a complete graphics overhaul? I can't imagine Silvermoon City with modern graphics, I'd probably walk around it just to see it for a few months. I think it's a good half-decade away from when they should have updated the graphics (if that's even possible).

I'm with you. I hope the next expansion surprises everyone and lives up to its single-player campaign. It's a subscription-based game. Gamers need something to keep them in-world after the single player campaign is over.

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jenovaschilld

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@wbrabbit:

In my opinion, Dragonflight ....

....... Look over here at this, hey this now" with no natural progression.

Exactly, you nailed it perfectly. For me, I am happy with any kind of decent new content. Not boring rehash and long waits for other stuff. BUT, I am completely aware that this is not enough in todays mmorpgs, or live service games and the generations that now play this game is not the same from 2005. I watched some old wow players on yt, where they talked about how these raids and mythic dungeons are getting out of hand. It is more of a memorization game, with walled off sections waiting for either gear progression or enough quest zones completed to access. While you have FF14 and other live service games, just begging to give you fun things to do.

I would love for them to be telling the truth about its current success. With the game being so old, coding probably being a nightmare, is it time to look ahead to a follow-up, even if it's just a complete graphics overhaul? .... (if that's even possible).

Yeah, what was the true graphical overhaul to the main engine.. I think, it was LEGION. I do not even know if Blizz or AB have enough developers on staff to overhaul WoWs core engines and lands. They can always improve the graphical look without scrapping everything, it is just expensive. Also, with new games like New World there was incredible innovation and great artistic designs. Huge elevations and thick forests, that wow's engines cannot compare to even with a more wow or cartoony design. I played FF7RB, omg that open world was so lush, intricate and alive.! I mean they should really take some notes on just what open worlds can be in 2024.

I'm with you. I hope the next expansion surprises everyone and lives up to its single-player campaign. It's a subscription-based game. Gamers need something to keep them in-world after the single player campaign is over.

Hope for the best, expect worst. I would love to know the budget allocation post acquisition and post tech bust, where funding has dried up. I am curious as to the amount of support wow next expansion will get after launch. Here is hoping for the best.

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Slannmage

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Why are people subbing to a game they bought? So dumb.

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AlleDragonfyre

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@Slannmage: How do you expect the game to be supported by staff? Developers? Internet access and rack space for the servers? Where do you think the money comes from?

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Wbrabbit

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@alledragonfyre: WOW has support? Well damn, that's new, when did that start?

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@Slannmage: In order to maintain server costs and game development. Early MMO's were one of the first GaaS (Games as a Service) titles and I think universally all of them had little to no micro-transactions. So the only way to keep them afloat was to charge.

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@mcnichoj: Ah, to go back to those days... a simple subscription to access the game, and nothing in the game was tainted by any form of pay-to-win. Just you, other players, and a big role-playing game. I miss it.

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mogan  Moderator

@Slannmage: I'd guess because they want to play the game and it costs a subscription fee to do that. MMORPGs with a sub fee were super common for a long time; WoW's just one of the few that's stayed popular enough to keep charging.

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faithxvoid

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@mogan: and brazen enough to put micro transactions on top of their sub...

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