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Analyst: The Bureau: XCOM Declassified will come up short

Cowen & Company's Doug Creutz believes new game from 2K Marin will sell fewer than 250,000 copies in US through end of the year.

180 Comments

A long development for The Bureau: XCOM Declassified won't be rewarded with strong sales, according to Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz.

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In a note to investors today, Creutz said 2K Marin's game is "unlikely to generate any significant sales." This will be fewer than 250,000 units in the United States through the end of the calendar year, he said.

Creutz's estimation is based on the results of an internal analysis of upcoming titles stemming from the number of preorders for the seven weeks since E3.

The Bureau: XCOM Declassified was originally announced in 2010 as a first-person shooter called XCOM. After numerous delays and years of silence, 2K Games announced in April that the game would be released August 20 under its new name for the Xbox 360, PlayStation 3, and PC as a full-price, third-person shooter.

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Avatar image for AJRiley
AJRiley

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I'm kind of torn here: Last year's Enemy Unknown was refreshing and fantastic to play! Why change it? There is no game like it in a market oversaturated with FPS and other shooters... I wish them well; I hope the risk taken pays off. I hope The Bureau truly brings out the magic Enemy Unknown delivered.

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norabbitnofun

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I'll give the game a fair chance. aiting for it to cime out!

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OldKye

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@norabbitnofun This is based off pre-orders and I think it's right no matter how good or bad the game is it's not going to sell that well.

I'm looking forward to trying it but they have poured some serious funds into advertising and with this little in return it's clear people don't want them diverting from the classic XCOM formula this much.

I hope it's a amazing game and the sales number pick up because of it but I've seen plenty of amazing games fail and this isn't hitting the target audience at all.

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DrowNoble

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I'm not going to buy this XCOM game when it comes out, waiting for the reviews. My main issue is that it's not turn-based strategic combat, a defining aspecto of XCOM games. Enemy Unkown was fantastic (imo should of been GOTY). This game seems like someone trying to capitalize on the renewed interest in the franchise.

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SkyAboveThePort

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@DrowNoble It all seems generic, it's true. But 2k Marin made Bioshock, so I'll keep an eye on it and wait for the reviews.

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DrowNoble

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Edited By DrowNoble

@SkyAboveThePort @DrowNoble Yes, waiting on reviews here too. I know they redesigned the game at one point, probably to make it more XCOM-ish. That could be a good or bad thing, we'll see.

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ux107

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This game remind me of Brother in arms series, instead of Germans, add aliens.

Nothing groundbreaking here, and the news it will come up short is no surprise for people been following it.

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Darkeus

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Well, I hope it is good and out sales what the so called analyst say. This actually looks halfway decent!

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AzureBonds76

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You know guys games like this could be more than viable if studios and publishers would START BEING HONEST ABOUT PROJECTED SALES FROM THE GET GO.

Not every game is going to be COD and sell 10 million copies. Hollywood has long had a good record with making lower budgeted films that go on to be profitable. Games like XCOM with long development cycles and that are scrapped and reworked are destined to not be successfull, and my take is that the studio and 2K both know this allready. A new take on an old IP at the end of a console's developement cycle that has been scrapped and rebuilt adding further cost is just not a good business formula.

The sad state of affairs is that these guys aren't dummies and have the same knowledge base that you are I have. Must be a bummer working on something that you might love only to know it is not going to be a winner.

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PodXCOM

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Good! I hope it sells nothing!

Where was the Research? The Base Building? The NonLinear maps? The Manufacturing? The Money Control? The HWP/Tanks? The Interceptors?

The cold truth is they never wanted this game to be X-COM. I mean, just look at how much it rips-off Mass Effect, and I don't even know much about Mass Effect.


Did *anyone* ever say: "Gee, X-COM plays a lot like Mass Effect?" Because never once did I thought an FPS X-COM would ever play like Mass Effect. I have thousands of ideas for a FPS X-COM, and Mass Effect was never one of them. I was following this game from 2010, and it's sad that this is what they came up with.


Oh, and this game is said to have lots of day one DLCs. So enjoy playing an incompleted game.

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Darkeus

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@PodXCOM Huh?

Go research game, come back and comment. ;-)

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PodXCOM

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@Darkeus @PodXCOM

I already did my research, thanks. But did you do yours? I know more about this game then you do. In fact, just look at the reply I did above.


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jonny_dutch

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Edited By jonny_dutch

@PodXCOM Research, Base Management and Non-Linear Maps are all in this. Dunno about tanks, and interceptors would make no sense considering the setting.
This isn't FPS, its TPS, an FPS XCOM would be directed at the Halo market, (run, gun, repeat) this is directed at XCOM core and shooter fans.
I've seen no evidence of day 1 DLC, do you have a link?

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PodXCOM

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http://www.gamespot.com/news/the-bureau-xcom-declassified-dlc-plans-revealed-6410436

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PodXCOM

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@jonny_dutch @PodXCOM

Oy vey! Do *you* have a link to where they said this game will have Research, Base Management and Non-Linear Maps? Because....

1. Research: From what I heard, research is going to be either A, where you *buy* alien weapon from crap (Elerium; tech; money; points) you got from the aliens (you know, like Dead Space or any JRPG.), or B, you just pick it up from the battlefield & use it.

2. Base: there is no Base Building or Base Management. They said it themselves in an interview at Gameplanet:


Gameplanet: Is base-building and character progression still a part of the game?

Bihary: This isn’t a base-management game, it’s a battlefield management game, so we want the player to spend most of their mindshare and imagination on how they and their agents are going to engage on the battlefield. [....] The offering the base presents is much more narrative structure, and what you get from the base is more passive, rather than you spending a lot of time figuring out where you’re going to invest credits or how you’re going to build out this space. That’s not the purpose of the base in out game. It gives you cool shit, but you don’t have to do a lot to get it from the base.

3. Non-Linear Maps: did you see the 20 or so videos? because they are very very Linear.

'This isn't FPS, its TPS, ....'


Whatever. This *was* a FPS, and it's still a shooter. I just didn't waste time on it.

'I've seen no evidence of day 1 DLC, do you have a link?'

Can you post links on gamespot? I'll link it in the next post just in case. But you can find it on gamespot,just look for 'The Bureau: XCOM Declassified DLC plans revealed', or just go to google and put 'Bureau: XCOM Declassified dlc'

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jawslover

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No shit..It's got barely any hype..

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Winzent

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@Boots Buchanan They made it an fps to appeal to a larger audience, they made it 3rd person to win back the fan base.

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NeOmeGamer

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Bullshit, i have pre-ordered that game and I only pre-order games that are best sellers. Mark my words, it's a sleeping hit. I know, im fuking in gaming longer than these so called analysts. 1-1.5 mln by the end of 2013 and up to 3 mln sold by the end of fiscal year in 2014(March/April) after price cut and new edition annoucements - with dlc included et al.

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Tseng

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@NeOmeGamer Firstly, it's 'Sleeper' Hit. Second, how do you know you have been in gaming longer than these analysts? Do you know them personally? Third, what are you basing your projections on? Unlike you they actually have data, trends and past experience predicting these things. That being said, they are just guessing, and often analysts are off/wrong, but spouting profanity, false bravado and nonsense numbers out there isn't exactly a strong counter argument.

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NeOmeGamer

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Edited By NeOmeGamer

@Tseng @NeOmeGamer You're boring, and you sound just like those anal-s.

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Tseng

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@NeOmeGamer @Tseng If you say so, but at least I can post an intelligent, thought provoking response, as opposed to the vitriol you seem to love spewing. Try and take something away from this discussion; don't post random nonsense on the internet. Chances are someone is going to point out that you aren't as smart as you think you are.

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Caldrin

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Are they trying to let us know in advance that the game will suck balls ?


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CMOTKarlos

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Hmm. New IP predicted to have weak sales huh? Shocker.
They should have called it Gears of Creed: Bureau Zombies and watched those pre-orders skyrocket.

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smokeandhush

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they need more advertise, positive one for sure.

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Jestersmiles

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Still getting it, gameplay seems good and I loved Enemy Unknown . Plus right now on steam and GOG is 44.49 with bonuses on steam.

So getting this game

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SkyAboveThePort

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Edited By SkyAboveThePort

@Jestersmiles I'm in the EU, I can wait for the reviews to drop in after Aug 20 and still pre-order it on Steam before Aug 23, with all bonuses =) Sometimes it's good to be the last in the queue...

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keyb0red

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Edited By keyb0red

amazing how far we've progressed from reading tea leaves and goat entrails.

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naomha1

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Just because he said that, I'm going to make sure I buy 750,000 copies so that every analyst for that company can do one thing. Kiss my ass. I love XCom games, I love the genre and I'm sure, based on what the newest XCom game did, that 250k is probably forecasting it a little short. There's probably that many preorders on Steam alone.

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chaosbrigade

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I agree. I have absolutely no interests in this game. I hate most third person shooter and I have this time period.

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naomha1

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Edited By naomha1

@chaosbrigade However, there are still probably a million people that do LOVE this genre, and X Com games.


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MasterManiac772

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@Malcolm Balogun Enemy Unknown ruined it for *me* with its shameless raping and pillaging of the X-Com name, braindead, thoughtless "strategy," hair-pulling handholding, awful presentation, its stupid visual style, and the complete absence of Geoscape simulation.


I guess that's just me.

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deactivated-57e5de5e137a4

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I think that probably depends on how good it is. I know I think it looks interesting, but given it's troubled development, I'll be waiting for reviews to see if it lives up to that curiosity.

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CoolCoke

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The original xcom is real live it has a moody feel to it that most games lack ...good gamee

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deactivated-5aaaf6313c856

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They should have sticked with the Enemy Unknown battle format. But I'm buying this anyway, I don't care.

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JURGMANDR

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I'm very intrigued by the game, it's just too bad they didn't spend more time advertising it to build more hype. I hope it'll be good.

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kian681

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Edited By kian681

Although the game does look interesting ,I can't afford to get it when it comes out because I am getting payday 2 the week before and then getting saints row 4 the same week that xcom comes out .I think many other gamers will be in a similar position

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deathstream

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Edited By deathstream

Funny thing is that I would have bought the FPS. It actually looked interesting. The success and quality of Enemy Unknown actually made trying to morph this game into a hybrid a worse idea than expanding the IP into a new genre.

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megadeth1117

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Edited By megadeth1117

The game looks interesting, and 2k Marin is a great development team, but I think he's right. A full price, single-player only, low on replay value game launching the same day as the next Splinter Cell and Saint's Row installments?

Good luck with that.

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MasterManiac772

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@megadeth1117 Welcome to 2013 - where being a single player only game is more damning than being a shameless name rip.

The sadness, the sadness.

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Thanatos2k

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It really is doomed. Too obscure for the idiot gamer who likes bro shooters, and the wrong genre for the actual X-Com fanbase who likes strategy.

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MasterManiac772

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@Thanatos2k What in the actual **** is a "bro" shooter? Seriously.

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Thanatos2k

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Edited By Thanatos2k

@MasterManiac772 @Thanatos2k COD, Battlefield, anything controlled with analog sticks instead of a mouse.

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Jestersmiles

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Edited By Jestersmiles

@MasterManiac772 @Thanatos2k Brain dead shooters, I.E COD

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MasterManiac772

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@Jestersmiles This mindless bashing of CoD and the like is so fucking played-out. I'd bet dollars to pesos that 80% of the dolts who parrot this bullshit are Black Ops 2 owners.

It's pathetic, and so very tired.

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BoromiRofGeo

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ffs just give me x-com enemy already known 2

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leviathanwing

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@BoromiRwcgeorge two separate teams. firaxis made xcom eu and when they tear themselves away from civilization maybe theyll make that sequel.

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Zloth2

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Or maybe people are FINALLY wising up to what a rip-off pre-orders are?

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MasterManiac772

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Edited By MasterManiac772

All I can say is, look at that still shot in the video. Does that look absolutely freaking stupid?

Yes. Yes it does.

This 'quasi-strangereal 50's and 60's' thing needs to stop. Seriously. It needs to stop cold, and everyone with a history of it in their resume needs to be excised from the industry. It was cute for a while, but this one-trick pony needs to take a nice ride to the glue factory.

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Jestersmiles

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@MasterManiac772 Dude stfu you been Q_Q all over the comment section. We get it you don't like, move on.

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MasterManiac772

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@Jestersmiles @MasterManiac772 Learn how to fucking type, please.

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